В только что опубликованных докладах МВФ поддержана позиция теперь уже бывшего министра финансов Алексея Кудрина. Доклады были написаны в начале августа с.г. Текста на русском пока нет. Судя по содержанию, будущий олигарх, уже тогда задумавший свой демарш и уход с государственной службы, проплатил эту публикацию. Или же это происки американцев.Из интервью авторов. Суть советов про бюджетную дисциплину: "Вернитесь к законодательно установленному ненефтяному дефициту 4,7%!":
Zakharova: The fiscal policy framework should also be strengthened. Right now, policy focus is on the overall fiscal balance. But because Russia is an oil producer, it is more appropriate to look at the nonoil deficit—the size of the deficit before taking oil revenues into account. This deficit increased by 9 percent of GDP during the crisis, with Russia implementing one of the largest fiscal stimuli in the Group of 20 (G-20) leading industrial and emerging market countries.
Our advice is to refocus fiscal policy on the nonoil balance and introduce an ambitious, credible, and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation that aims at reaching a nonoil deficit of 4.7 percent, the current long-term fiscal target of the government.
We also recommend that Russia refrain from enacting further supplementary budgets, which in the past have been used to spend excess oil revenues. Supplementary budgets make fiscal policy pro-cyclical, thus undermining macroeconomic stability.
Чтобы два раза не вставать, про перспективы роста: без реформ рост ВВПв реальном выражении будет 4% в год, а с реформами 6% в год:
If current policies—a high nonoil fiscal deficit and no clear medium-term anchor for fiscal policy, monetary policy that is insufficiently focused on reducing inflation, a financial sector lacking adequate oversight, and stalled structural reforms—are maintained, the result will be muddling through, with growth tapering off to below 4 percent in the medium term. But if there is a major strengthening of the economic policies, Russia’s potential is huge. The country could easily grow by an annual rate of 6 percent or more on a sustained basis if the right policies are put in place.
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