Эль-Эриан в ФТ написал про "момент правды", а Грос добавил свой ответ. Текст Эль-Эриана есть на сайте пимко. Заканчивается неутешительно:
Responding properly to all this is an engineering nightmare and a political headache. Critically, it now requires giving up on at least one, and more likely at least two, of the three principles that have underpinned the coalition’s approach to Greece: avoiding a debt restructuring, a currency devaluation and a change in the fiscal set up of the eurozone.
Europe faces a moment of truth. The sooner this is recognised, the greater the chance of shifting to a “plan B”. If not the prospects are stark: the already-difficult outlook facing the three bail-out countries (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) will surely be compounded by a decade of internal economic implosion. The task must now be to limit fundamental contagion to countries that are yet to be bailed out (notably Spain), and to maintain the integrity of the Euro. But the time for action is fast running out.
Грос реагирует: Аргентина-Греция 5:0
How should one assess the chances of Greece avoiding an Argentine scenario today? A quick look at the fundamentals (Greece today versus Argentina before the default) is not encouraging:</p>Debt level (% of GDP): GR: 150% v. ARG: 50 %
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP): GR: 12% v. ARG: 5 %
Current account deficit (% of GDP): GR: 10% v. ARG: 2 %
Growth (real GDP): GR: -3% v. ARG: -2 %
Deposit flight (% change in bank deposits): GR: -10% v. ARG: -7 %
On these five fundamental indicators of an impending crisis it is thus five to nil for Argentina.
So where are we heading? As in Argentina in 2001 the population of Greece seems determined today to push the country towards the worst of all options: a disorderly default without having implemented first the structural reforms which would allow the country to emerge leaner and stronger from this “catharsis”. There is very little Europe can do to avoid this outcome.
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Эль-Эриан и Грос о еврозоне
Saturday, 18 June, 13:06,
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